This important and timely book assembles expert scientists from both sides of the debate to discuss Earth-based and space-based climate intervention technologies including the scale, deployment, risk management, and moral philosophy behind these technologies.
Table of ContentsPreface
Acknowledgments
1. Prolegomenon: A Geoengineering PrimerMartin Beech
1.1 Introduction
1.2 The Paris Agreement
1.3 Tipping Points – Where Are We?
1.4 The Size of the Problem
1.5 Geoengineering – Where, When, and How?
1.6 Moving Forward
1.7 The Role of Industry
1.8 What Now?
References
2. Two Generations of Ethical Debate on GeoengineeringAugustine Pamplany
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Ambiguities in Defining Geoengineering
2.3 Geoengineering Technological Schemes
2.4 History of Geoengineering
2.5 Two Generations of Ethical Debate
2.5.1 First Generation of Ethical Arguments
2.5.1.1 The Climate Emergency Arguments
2.5.1.2 Feasibility Framing
2.5.1.3 Lesser Evil and Moral Hazard
2.5.1.4 Intergenerational Responsibility or Path Dependency?
2.5.1.5 The Ecological Spectrum of Discourses
2.5.2 Second Generation of Ethical Arguments
2.5.2.1 Progress Towards Techno-Specific Normativity
2.5.2.2 Justice to the Forefront
2.5.2.3 The Shift from the Rhetoric to the Realistic
2.5.2.4 From Technological Hubris to Scientific Moderation
2.6 Research Priorities Towards Maturing Debate
2.6.1 Technology-Specific Research and Deliberations
2.6.2 Restoring the CDR-SRM Research Balance
2.6.3 Governance and Procedural Justice
2.6.4 Invoking Alternate Epistemic and Conceptual Models
2.7 Conclusion
References
3. Risky Business: Complex Risks of Solar GeoengineeringAaron Tang
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Framework for Risk Assessment
3.3 Understanding the Dangers of Solar Geoengineering
3.3.1 Direct Impacts: Ecological Risk
3.3.2 Systemic Risks
3.3.3 Compound Hazards
3.3.4 Latent Risk
3.3.5 Bad vs. Worse
3.4 Complexities of Risk Comparison
3.5 Best of a Bad Bunch
3.6 Slippery Slopes
3.6.1 A Typology of Slippery Slopes
3.7 Conclusion
References
4. Climate Justice and the Dangers of Solar GeoengineeringJennie C. Stephens
4.1 Prioritizing Transformative Climate Justice
4.2 Solar Geoengineering: Illustrating the Dangers of Climate Isolationism
4.3 The Injustices of Advancing Solar Geoengineering
4.4 Climate Justice Resistance to Solar Geoengineering
4.5 Conclusions
References
5. Solar Geoengineering: An Insoluble Problem?Patrick Moriarty and Damon Honnery
Abbreviations
5.1 Introduction
5.2 The Many Forms of Solar Geoengineering
5.3 Controversies about SG Methods
5.4 Argument: Why SG is Needed
5.5 Argument: The Case Against SG
5.6 The Comparative Economics of SG
5.7 Discussion and Conclusions
5.8 Research Priorities
References
6. Potential Mental Health Risks Associated with Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Methods Using Aluminum OxideGiovanni Ghirga
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Methods
6.3 Results
6.4 Conclusions
References
7. What to Consider When Considering Solar GeoengineeringBurgess Langshaw Power
7.1 Introduction
7.2 The Options
7.2.1 SAI (Regional vs. Global)
7.2.2 MCB (Coasts)
7.2.3 CCT (Arctic)
7.2.4 Surface Albedo Modification of Sea Ice
7.3 Geography
7.3.1 The Arctic
7.4 Climate Action
7.4.1 Oil and Gas
7.4.2 Moral Hazard
7.4.3 Carbon: Natural and Technological Solutions
7.4.4 Slippery Slope
7.4.5 Lock-In
7.5 Public Participation
7.5.1 Indigenous Peoples and Duty to Consult
7.6 Geopolitics
7.6.1 Canada and the World
7.7 Conclusion
References
8. Moral Hazard of Geoengineering to DecarbonizationSoheil Shayegh
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Modeling Decarbonization and Climate Change Impacts
8.2.1 The Case without Geoengineering
8.2.2 The Case with Geoengineering
8.3 Moral Hazard
8.4 Discussion
8.5 Conclusion
Acknowledgment
References
9. The Preeminent Question of Environmental Philosophy: Where Should We Set the Envirostat?Mark Walker
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Geoengineering and the Envirostat
9.3 Animals’ Interests
9.4 World Park
9.5 Animal UN
9.6 Justice and Possible Animals
9.7 The Current Solar Geoengineering Debate
9.8 The Preeminent Question of Environmental Philosophy
References
10. Climate Hegemony and Control Over the Global ThermostatJohn Hickman
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Collective Action Problem
10.3 Hegemonic Stability Theory
10.4 Auction Theory
10.5 Conclusion
References
11. Designing A Priori Scenarios for Stratospheric Aerosol Injections to Mitigate
Climate Change: An Optimal Control Technique ApplicationSergei Soldatenko
11.1 Introduction
11.2 Statement of the Optimal Control Problem
11.3 Designing Optimal SAI Scenarios: Problem Formulation
11.3.1 Control Variable
11.3.2 Control Object Model
11.3.3 Formulation of the Optimal Control Problem
11.4 Solution of the Optimal Control Problem
11.5 Results and Discussion
References
12. Testing the Limits of the World’s Largest Control Task: Solar Geoengineering as a Deep Reinforcement Learning ProblemEshaan Agrawal and Christian Schroeder de Witt
12.1 Introduction
12.2 Solar Geoengineering as a High-Dimensional Control Problem
12.2.1 The Control Loop
12.2.2 Modeling the State Transition Function
12.2.3 Designing the Reward Function
12.2.4 Solving the Control Problem
12.2.5 Why Reinforcement Learning?
12.2.6 Closing the Reality Gap
12.3 A Fast GCM Environment: Introducing HadCM3
12.3.1 Understanding HadCM3’s Aerosol Model
12.3.2 Taking Actions: Modeling Custom Aerosol Injections in HadCM3
12.3.3 Probing HadCM3’s Aerosol Injection Response
12.4 Building a GCM Emulator
12.4.1 Identifying Sufficient State Statistics
12.4.2 Data Collection
12.4.3 Data Preprocessing
12.4.4 Neural Network Emulation
12.4.4.1 On the Use of Learned World Models
12.5 Geoengineering in the Mesosphere: A Research Agenda
12.5.1 A Research Agenda for Mesospheric Aerosol Injection (MAI)
12.6 Closing the Reality Gap
12.6.1 A Multi-Fidelity Bilevel Optimization Approach
12.7 Conclusions and Outlook
Acknowledgments
References
13. Geochemical Drivers of Enhanced Rock Weathering in SoilsXavier Dupla, Susan L. Brantley, Carlos Paulo, Benjamin Möller, Ian M. Power and Stéphanie Grand
13.1 Introduction
13.2 Fundamental Geochemical Considerations
13.2.1 Influence of Mineralogy
13.2.2 Influence of Grain Size
13.2.3 Influence of Temperature
13.2.4 Influence of pH
13.2.5 Influence of Saturation Conditions
13.2.6 Influence of Secondary Precipitation
13.2.7 Synthesis of Geochemical Factors Influencing ERW
13.3 What do ERW Experiments Teach us and Where from Here?
13.3.1 Lessons from ERW Experiments
13.3.2 Designing Future ERW Experiments
13.4 Conclusion
Acknowledgment
References
14. Geoengineering Cities with Reflective and Pervious SurfacesSushobhan Sen
14.1 Introduction
14.2 Physics of UHI
14.2.1 Albedo
14.2.2 Convection, Emission, and Latent Heat
14.2.3 Energy Balance
14.2.4 Urban Canyon
14.3 Mitigation of UHI
14.3.1 Reflective Surfaces
14.3.2 Pervious Surfaces
14.4 Research Priorities
14.5 Conclusion
References
15. Urban GeoengineeringGiles Thomson, Jonathan Fink and Peter Newman
15.1 Introduction
15.2 Background
15.3 Cities, Sustainability and Decarbonization
15.4 Global Trends in Decarbonization
15.5 Achieving Net Zero and the SDGs with Urban Geoengineering
15.6 Urban Geoengineering Interventions
15.7 Governance for Urban Geoengineering
15.8 Concluding Comments and Future Research
References
16. Cooling Down the World Oceans and the EarthJulian David Hunt, Andreas Nascimento, Fabio A. Diuana, Natália de Assis Brasil Weber, Gabriel Malta Castro, Ana Carolina Chaves, André Luiz Amarante Mesquita, Angéli Viviani Colling and Paulo Smith Schneider
16.1 Introduction
16.2 Methodology
16.2.1 Increasing the Salinity of the Arctic Ocean Surface
16.2.1.1 Reduce the River Flow to the Arctic
16.2.1.2 Reduce Greenland Ice Sheet Melting
16.2.1.3 Mix Arctic Ocean Waters
16.3 Results
16.4 Discussion
16.5 Conclusion
Acknowledgments
References
17. Ice Preservation: A Research Priority for Climate Resilience and Sustainability – Experience in the FieldLeslie Field
17.1 A Personal Introduction
17.2 How Bad is the Climate Situation?
17.3 Ice Preservation – A Research Priority for Climate Resilience
17.4 Now is the Time to Preserve Bright Ice
17.5 Minnesota Pond Work
17.6 Iceland Glacial Test, August 2023
17.7 Our Work at Bright Ice Initiative
Acknowledgement
References
18. Cirrus Cloud ThinningDavid L. Mitchell and Ehsan Erfani
18.1 Clouds, Radiation, and the Physics of Cirrus Cloud Thinning
18.2 Past and Present CCT Research
18.3 Suggestions for Improving the Treatment of CCT in Climate Models
18.4 Possible Relation to Midlatitude Extreme Winter Weather
References
19. Can the COVID-19 Decrease in Aircraft Flights Inform us of Whether the Addition of Efficient INP to Cirrus Altitudes Cools the Climate?Joyce E. Penner, Jialei Zhu and Anne Garnier
19.1 Introduction
19.2 The Relative Importance of Heterogeneous and Homogeneous Nucleation
19.3 Model Description
19.3.1 Important Variables Based on Observations
19.3.2 Aerosol Ice Nucleation Onset and Fraction
19.3.3 Pre-Existing Ice Treatment
19.4 Evaluation of Model Aerosols and Ice Concentrations
19.4.1 Aerosol Number Concentrations
19.4.2 Ice Number Concentrations
19.5 Discussion: What Does This Mean for Cirrus Seeding?
19.6 Conclusion
References
20. Biogenic Iron Oxides as a Source of Iron for Ocean Iron FertilizationDavid Emerson, Sarabeth George, Amy Doiron and Benjamin S. Twining
20.1 Introduction
20.2 Biogenic Iron
20.2.1 Testing the Bioavailability of BIOX
20.3 Production of BIOX
20.3.1 How Much BIOX Can Be Produced?
20.3.2 Processing and Delivery of BIOX
20.4 Additional Aspects of OIF
20.4.1 History of Fe-Additions to the Ocean
20.4.2 A Cautionary Tale
20.4.3 Natural Fe Fertilization Events
20.5 Social Considerations
20.5.1 Verification
20.6 Conclusions and Recommendations
Acknowledgment
References
21. Space Bubbles: The Deflection of Solar Radiation Using Thin-Film Inflatable
Bubble RaftsNikita Klimenko, Umberto Fugiglando and Carlo Ratti
21.1 Introduction
21.2 A Bubble Sunshade
21.3 Future Developments
References
22. Optimal Sunshield PositioningChrister Fuglesang
22.1 Introduction
22.2 Sunshade Area
22.3 Sunshade Position
22.4 Optical Properties
22.5 Getting to the First Lagrange Point L1´
References
23. Could the Well of an Orbital Lift Be Used to Deposit Greenhouse Gases into Space?Orfeu Bertolami
23.1 Introduction
23.2 Basic Features of the Proposed System
23.3 Discussion and Outlook
References
24. Ionospheric Perturbations from Satellite DustSierra Solter
24.1 Introduction
24.2 Model Considerations
24.2.1 Re-Entry Mass Accumulation
24.2.2 Debye Length Considerations
24.2.3 Plasma Drag
24.2.4 Conductive Shell Formation
24.2.5 Magnetosphere Loss on Mars
24.2.6 Dust Accumulation in the Atmosphere
24.3 Conclusion
Acknowledgments
References
25. Geoengineering and Beyond – Planetary Defense, Space Debris, and SETIMartin Beech
25.1 Introduction
25.2 Earth in the Firing Zone
25.3 Impactor Populations
25.4 Impact Probabilities
25.5 The Day the Climate Changed
25.6 Lead Times
25.7 Impact Risk
25.8 Planetary Defense
25.9 Signs of Life and Technosignatures
25.10 Space Debris
25.11 What Next? – Research Priorities
References
26. Future Imperative and the Inevitable TechnofixMartin Beech
26.1 Introduction
26.2 The Aging Sun
26.3 The Faint Young Sun Paradox
26.4 Lifetime of the Biosphere
26.5 Actions
26.6 Albedo Modification
26.7 Sunshades
26.8 Orbit Change
26.9 Far-Out Methods
26.10 Terraforming
26.11 Engineering the Sun
26.12 Pastures New
26.13 Conclusions
References
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